As Singapore heads for the 1 July switch of major sports properties from StarHub to SingTel (we're listening for the roar of protest from Wimbledon fans who have been watching on StarHub...) early bets are being made on what‘s going to happen in Singapore when the next round of Barclays Premiere League bidding opens.
After all, just look at what happened to StarHub and SingTel’s maiden efforts to work together on the World Cup. Nice thought, brotherly love and co-operation to bring prices down...
The results? Not so much. Ask the 25,000 irate fans who joined the Facebook protest to boycott World Cup subscription because of what they view as outrageous subscription prices, and applied for (and were granted) a license for a public demonstration. Protestors turned up full of red card fury, wailing about the almost-seven-fold increase in fees from US$7 in 2006 to US$48 this year. And that’s for the early birds. The others had to pay US$64.
If, between them, the two platforms get 100,000 World Cup subscribers by the time the last whistle sounds next month, they’ll be lucky. And there’s no advertising revenue because the deal was signed so so so late. The rights are rumoured to have cost close to US$20 million. Lowball and put the final figure at US$17 million. Say half the subscribers paid the early bird rate of $66/US$47, that’s US$2.4 million. Add the other half who paid the full rate, S$90/US$64, and you get another US$3.3 million. It’s still only a total of US$5.7 million. There might be a few hundred thousand in commercial venue subscription.
Free-TV broadcaster MediaCorp probably put a large chunk down on the table for free-TV rights to the opening match, the semi’s and the final. Add US$2.5 million to US$3 million. At the top end, that’s still only US$8.7 million in the pot. Even if Singapore Pools put in a few million, StarHub/SingTel are still woefully short of where they need to be to even dream about break even.
It’s very likely to go down in Singapore broadcast history as the Big Bleed, and it doesn’t bode well.
The current anti-exclusive regulations in Singapore don’t cover SingTel’s existing licensing deal, which runs for the next three seasons. If prevailing regulatory sentiment prevails, there’s no way BPL will escape the must-share rule. Even if the regulations are changed to exclude the majority of regular linear channels, sports – the biggest culprit of rocketing content costs – is unlikely to be excluded.
On the other side of the table, English Premier League negotiators know now exactly what the Singapore rights are worth, even if they recognise that the stakes next time around are likely to be lower and that SingTel (like PCCW in Hong Kong) will have secured its subs base and won’t need to bust the bank again.
At the same time, they’re unlikely to go back to former levels set when the country’s had one pay-TV player. Even if a joint bid is mandated, the price could be pretty much the same.
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